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BRAZILIAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY

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Macroeconomia do Brasil


  Documentos 1 a 60 de 65
Onde foi que erramos? Quando e por que a economia saiu da rota
2016. In the recent past liberals (1990-2002) as well as developmentalists (2003-2014) failed in overcoming the quasi-stagnation that defines the Brazilian economy since 1980. New developmentalism offers a short and a long-term alternative. (Large essay in Folha de S.Paulo)
Retenção cambial alíquota zero
2016. The crisis made the exchange rate right. Now is the momement to adopt an "exchange rate retention, which neutralizes the Dutch disease, so blocking the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate existing in developing countries. (Op ed: Valor)
É preciso criar metas de poupança e investimento públicos
2016. Just austerity proved not to be able to bring back private investment and growth. It is necessary to have as basic fiscal metric public savings, control current public expenditures, and increase public investment. (Op ed, Folha de S.Paulo)
Brazil's 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory
2015. The Brazilian economy is quasi-stagnant since 1990 trade-liberalization, when trade liberalization dismantled the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease and the ensuing competitive disadvantage started up deindustrialization. Previous Portuguese version available. (Paper in edited book)
Reindustrialização como projeto nacional
2015. In order to re-industrialize Brazil requires a competitive exchange rate, a low level interest rate, and fiscal responsibility. In addition, industrial policy. (small article, Le Monde Diplomatique - Brasil)
Saída está no câmbio e na taxa de juros
2015. The way out of the quasi-stagnation since the Real Plan is overcome the high interest rate - overvalued currency trap. (Interview to Jornal da Paraíba)
The macroeconomic tripod and the Workers' Party administrations
2015. Since 2003 a developmental government tried change the perverse liberal tripod, but eventually failed, as it was victim of exchange rate and fiscal populism, while the international situation deteriorated. (Paper in edited book)
Os ricos nunca gostaram e temem a democracia
2015. Long interview. Bresser-Pereira speaks about his life, ideas, and Brazil. (Long interview to Leandro Fontoura, Zero Hora)
Ajuste para poder governar
2015. No início de 2015 o Brasil viu-se diante de três problemas que se somavam de forma interdependente: a recessão, a crise fiscal e a grave crise política. (Nueva Sociedad)
A quase-estagnação brasileira e sua explicação novo-desenvolvimentista
2015. The Brazilian economy is quasi-stagnant since 1990 trade-liberalization, when trade liberalization dismantled the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease and the ensuing competitive disadvantage started up deindustrialization. Updated English version available. (Paper in book edited by Nelson Barbosa et al.)
Desenvolvimentistas, liberais, e sua preferência pelo consumo imediato
2014. Liberals as well as vulgar Keynesians show a preference for immediate consumption associated with an overvalued currency. (Paper: Crítica e Sociedade)
Um estudo empírico da substituição da poupança interna pela externa no Brasil
2014. With Eliane Araújo and Paulo Gala. (Paper). Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper in EconomiA, da ANPEC). English version available.
An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil
2014. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.
Governos praticam populismo cambial
2013. Bresser-Pereira estima que o dólar estaria no "lugar certo" a R$3,00 (Entrevista a Roberto Müller, Liliana Lavoratti e Fernanda Bompan).
Crise do euro, avanços no Brasil
2011. The Euro Zone faces a major crisis. It is trated as if it were a fiscal crisis but, actually, is a currency crisis. Meanwhile Brazil faces difficulties, but there is some progress in understanding the role of the exdhange rate. (Conference)
O Brasil e o Novo Desenvolvimentismo
2011. New developmentalism is a national development strategy that implies fiscal and exchange rate responsibility. Brazil lacks the later. (Interesse Nacional).
Corremos o risco de crise nas contas externas (Estado, 24.12.10)
2010. O Brasil sofre de doença holandesa, que provoca a desindustrialização da economia. Nosso desafio é neutralizar a sobreapreciação do câmbio (Entrevista a Raquel Landim).
A tendência à sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio no Brasil
2010. The tendency to the cyclical overevaluation of the exchange rate in developing countries is easily seen in Brazil. (Paper in edited book)
Deficits, exchange rate, and growth (Estado, 07.3.10)
2010. Prof. Affonso A. Pastore and other competent orthodox economists still believe that foreign savings cause growth. Actually, they increase consumption and mostly replace domestic savings. (Article O Estado de S.Paulo)
La tendencia a la sobrevaluación del tipo de cambio
2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Economía UNAM, México, Vol. 6, No. 18). Portuguese version available.
Brasil perdeu idéia de Nação (Site:www.itv.org.br, 24.8.07)
2007. In global capitalism nation-states compete. As Brazil lost the idea of nation, it follows economic policies recommended by its competitors, and, so, is falling behind. (Entrevista ao Instituto Teotônio Vilela sobre o livro Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. The high interest-overvalued currency trap. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book
Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book
A política de juros e de câmbio está no rumo do crescimento? (Estado, 01.08.07)
2007. Debate with Ilan Goldfajn a good way of comparing new developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy. (Two pages in O Estado de S.Paulo)
Bresser-Pereira critica juros altos, câmbio baixo e ajuste fiscal frouxo (Gazeta Mercantil, 21.05.07)
2007. Interview to Cristina Borges Guimarães on "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": Brazil needs low interest rate, competitve exchange rate, and austere fiscal policy to overcome quasi-stagnation and grow (Gazeta Mercantil,21.5)
Para Bresser, Brasil está em ciclo vicioso (Folha, 20.05.07)
2007. Interview to Cristiane Barbieri on Bresser-Pereira's latest book Macroeconomia da Estagnação. New developmentalism is a third discourse between old developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy.(Interview: Folha de S.Paulo).
Administrar dólar é fundamental (Valor, 18.05.07)
2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)
PAC apenas não resolverá (GVexecutivo, 6(3).5.07
2007. PAC is an welcomed program for the coordination of investments, but without a competent macroeconomic policy it will not make Brasil resume real economic growth.(Entrevista a Françoise Terzian, GVexecutivo)
Substitution of foreign for domestic savings: the Brazilian case
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.
Substituição de poupança interna pela externa: o caso do Brasil
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper available only in this site) English version available.
Substituição da poupança interna pela externa: o caso do Brasil
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). English version available.
The substitution of foreign for domestic savings and its inverse: the Brazilian case
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
Juros, câmbio e ajuste fiscal (Folha, 03.07.06)
2006. Fiscal adjustment is always necessary, but, contrarilly to what conventional orthodoxy says, it is not its lack in Brazil that explain the astronomic interest rates. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Substituição da poupança interna pela externa e seu inverso: o caso do Brasil
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil.(Paper)
Como baixar o nível dos juros (Folha, 16.01.06)
2006. The basic steps required to Brazil get out of the interest rate trap in which it is. A change in the 'regiime' of monetary policy is necessary. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Transferência indevida e injusta (Folha, 02.01.06)
2006. Labor revenues decreased in real between 1994 and 2004, despite a small increase in per capita income. The incongruency comes out of the interest paid to rentiers. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
O sistema econômico brasileiro
2005. The Brazilian economic system's inner logic is not economic growth but providing high interest rates for local and foreign rentiers. (Note: Conjuntura Econômica)*.
Macroeconomia Pós-Plano Real: As Relações Básicas
2005. The perverse macroeconomic model of the Brazilian economy combining high interest rate and low exchange rate with growth with foreign savings and quasi-stagnation. (In edited book, Novo Desenvolvimentismo)*
Uma agenda nacional
2004. What should be the national agenda, as it was discussed in the 1o. Fórum de Economia da Fundação Getúlio Vargas". (Note: Conjuntura Econômica)
Brazil's quasi-stagnation and the growth cum foreign savings strategy
2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy adopted in the Cardoso administration. Foreign finance does not cause growth. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*
Proposta de desenvolvimento para o Brasil
2004. Summarized view of what is needed for Brazil achieve macroeconomic stability and resume growth. (Testimony to the Brazilian Câmara dos Deputados, published in Revista de Economia Política, October 2004)
Reformas econômicas em tempos anormais
1993. IMF adjustment programs and World Banks structural reforms ignore that the Brazilian economy faces abnormal times. (Paper in Revista da USP)
Economic reforms and economic growth: efficiency and politics in Latin America
1992. Stabilization and other market-oriented economic reforms face a double challenge in new democracies: they have to be economically effective and politically feasible. Since 1980 Latin America faced a debt crisis and a crisis of the state. Now, two competing interpretations are present the neo-liberal Washington Consensus and the fiscal crisis of the state approach. The later anticipates the 2003 "new developmentalism". (Paper: Chapter 1 of Economic Reforms in New Democracies).
The failure to stabilise
1993. Brazil's failure to achieve price stabilization is essentially a consequence of the incompetence of authorities (and IMF) in acknowledging the inertial character of inflation and the lack of political support for fiscal adjustment. (Lecture in London)
A lógica perversa da estagnação: dívida, déficit e inflação no Brasil
1991. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. English version available. (Paper: Revista Brasileira de Economia)
The perverse macroeconomics of debt, deficit and inflation in Brazil
1989. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. Portuguese version available.(Paper in book edited by Fukuchi and Kagami).
A composição financeira do déficit público
1987. Interest expenditures and real state expenditures have different consequences on aggregate demand. Thus a contry may have a public deficit whose origin are the interests paid consistent with insufficient demand and unemployment. This was what occurred in the Brazilian economy in 1985. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)*
Changing patterns of financing investment in Brazil
1987. Investment used to be financed by the state. Yet, given the fiscal crisis of the state, the private sector is supposed to play a more active role. First paper where I discuss the fiscal crisis of the state. Portuguese version available(Paper)
Inertial inflation and the Cruzado Plan
1987. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. Portuguese version available.(Paper: World Development)
Inflação inercial e choque heterodoxo no Brasil
1986. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
A economia possível com Tancredo (Folha, 15.09.84)
1984. A short (11 pages) proposal on how do deal with the main economic problems of Brazil written when Tancredo Neves was to be elected president of Brazil. (Conference: Folha de S.Paulo)
The crisis of the 1970s
1983 [1984]. A survey of the 1970s and an analysis of the causes of the crisis beginning in 1981: reversion of the economic cycle as consequence of overaccumulation, and the debt crisis. Portuguese version available. (Chapter 8 of Development and Crisis in Brazil: 1930-1983)
Auge e declínio nos anos setenta
1983. A survey of the 1970s and an analysis of the causes of the crisis beginning in 1981: reversion of the economic cycle as consequence of overaccumulation, and the debt crisis. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
Despesas do Estado, repartição e valor
1982. In the modern technobureaucratic-capitalist state, market and state coordination of the economy are intrinsically connected. In economic terms the state is producer, income distributor, and coordinator.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
A política econômica endógena
1981. Economic policy is becoming endogenous as the state gets imobilized for fiscal and financial reasons.
A estratégia brasileira de desenvolvimento entre 1967 e 1973
1977. Two strategies increasing demand were central in the Brazilian 1967-73 'miracle': the concentration of income benefiting the middle class and the rich and an active export policy. (Paper: Revista de Administração de Empresas).
A economia do subdesenvolvimento industrializado
1975. The basic characteristics of growth model that prevailed during the military regime: the technobureaucratic-capitalist model of industrialized underdevelopment. In macroeconomic terms it was based on the supply side on the production of luxury goods, on the demand side, on concentration of income from the middle-class upwards. French version available(Estudos Cebrap)
Le sous-développement industrialisé
1975. The basic characteristics of growth model that prevailed during the military regime: the technobureaucratic-capitalist model of industrialized underdevelopment. In macroeconomic terms, on the supply side, it was based on the production of luxury goods; on the demand side, on the concentration of income from the middle-class upwards. Portuguese version available.
El nuevo modelo brasileño de desarrollo
1974. The "new development model" begins in Brazil in the late 1960s, and later I called "modelo de subdesenvolvimento industrializado". Contrarily to what Celso Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. Portuguese and English versions available. This paper elaborates on the 1970 article, "Dividir ou multiplicar: A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira".(Paper: Revista Dados) (Paper: Desarrollo Economico)
 
 
 
 
 

 

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