The Political Construction of Brazil

2017. An encompassing analysis of Brazil’s society, economy and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. Three historical cycles of the relation state-society: State and Territorial Integration Cycle (1822-1929), Nation and Development Cycle (1930-1977) and Democracy and Social Justice Cycle (1977-2010). Crisis since then. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)

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Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics – the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)

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Câmbio e poupança externa


Documentos 1 a 48 de 48



Why the 'Rest' doesn't need foreign finance

2016. Against conventional wisdom, countries that don't incur into current account deficits grow faster, because such deficits correspond to an overvalued currency that encourages consumption and discourages investment. (Paper)



Why developing countries should not incur foreign debt: the Brazilian experience

2016. Paper with Thiago de Moraes Moreira. Current account deficits, even when financed by direct investments, hinder instead of enhance growth because the cause overvaluation of the national currency. (Paper in edited book to be published)



Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics - the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)



Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics - the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)



Developmental Macroeconomics

2014. With Nelson Marconi and José Luís Oreiro. Developmental Macroeconomics is a book on development macroeconomics associated with New Developmentalism. In its core are the exchange rate and the current account, instead of the budget deficit and the interest rate. (Book: Routledge)



Um estudo empírico da substituição da poupança interna pela externa no Brasil

2014. With Eliane Araújo and Paulo Gala. (Paper). Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper in EconomiA, da ANPEC). English version available.



An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil

2014. With Eliane Araújo e Paulo Gala. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.



Globalization and Competition

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Cambridge University Press).



Globalização e Competição

2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Elsevier).



Globalización y Competencia

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI).



Mondialisation et compétition

2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Éditions La Découverte)



Poupança externa e investimento (debate com o prof. Affonso Celso Pastore)

2010. The four articles of my debate with prof. Affonso Celso Pastore on whether or not "foreign savings" (current account deficits) contribute to investment and growth.



O pré-sal e a nação (Folha, 7.9.09)

2009. Os três pilares do plano do governo sobre o pré-sal são o sistema de partilha, a Petrossal e o fundo soberano. Eles permitem que o país neutralize a doença holandesa. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Tasks in building a New Bretton Woods (Website, 10.11.08)

2008. To avoid new global financial crisis it would be necessary to convene among nations a maximum current account deficit in relation to GDP that would be allowed to countries. (Article just published in this website)



Câmbio real e poupança interna (Valor, 20.8.08)

2008. Contrarily to what say conventional economists, current account deficit does not imply excess demand it may simply be the outcome of an overvalued exchange rate. (Article with Paulo Gala: Valor).



The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate

2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)



Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus

2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. The high interest-overvalued currency trap. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)



Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book



Ganho ao invés de confisco (Estado, 18 a 22.05.07)

2007. Given the Dutch disease, I am not proposing confiscation but a marginal tax on exports that will not hurt but will stabilize commodities' production and profitability. (Two articles by Celso Ming and my letter to him)



Bresser-Pereira critica juros altos, câmbio baixo e ajuste fiscal frouxo (Gazeta Mercantil, 21.05.07)

2007. Interview to Cristina Borges Guimarães on "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": Brazil needs low interest rate, competitve exchange rate, and austere fiscal policy to overcome quasi-stagnation and grow (Gazeta Mercantil,21.5)



Administrar dólar é fundamental (Valor, 18.05.07)

2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)



Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento

2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)



Desindustrialização e doença holandesa (Folha, 09.04.07)

2007. If we compare the real and effective exchange rate in Brazil before 1990-92 with the present one, it will be clear that Brazil is victim of the Dutch disease. Before that, we were able to neutralize it we are not anymore, and the consequence is disastrous to the Brazilian economy. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)



Globalização comercial e financeira (Folha, 29.01.07)

2007. Commercial globalization is a major opportunity for developing countries, financial globalization, a disaster. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Substitution of foreign for domestic savings: the Brazilian case

2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.



Substituição de poupança interna pela externa: o caso do Brasil

2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper available only in this site) English version available.



Substituição da poupança interna pela externa: o caso do Brasil

2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). English version available.



The substitution of foreign for domestic savings and its inverse: the Brazilian case

2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)



Substituição da poupança interna pela externa e seu inverso: o caso do Brasil

2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil.(Paper)



A economia política da desgovernança econômica global

2005. The balance of payment crises in developing countries (originated in the strategy of growth with foreign savings) and the enormous US current account deficit are both the outcome of economic populism. The later problem points out to a hard landing. English version available.(Paper: Estudos Econômicos) .



Crítica do crescimento com poupança externa

2005. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings that I have been doing since 2001. This version was substantially improved in 2006 receiving the new title "Why foreign savings fail to cause growth", in English, and "Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento" in Portuguese. I keep this version here just for the record. (Paper: Texto para Discussão)



Câmbio e juros (Folha, 09.05.05)

2005. The Lula administrtion cannot avoid exchange rate appreciation because it is trapped by its policy on the interest rate. To buy dollars is impossible given the financial costs involved.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Brazil's quasi-stagnation and the growth cum foreign savings strategy

2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy adopted in the Cardoso administration. Foreign finance does not cause growth. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*



La Politique Macroéconomique Brésilienne (1994-2003) et le Second Consensus de Washington

2004. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. Translation of "O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-estagnação do Brasil". (Paper: Problèmes d'Amérique Latine)*



The Second Washington Consensus and Latin Americas Quasi-Stagnation

2004. With Carmen Varela. Latin Americas quasi-stagnation in the 1990s can be explained principally by the growth cum foreign savings strategy. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)



Desenvolvimento e Crise no Brasil (5a. edição)

2003. The patterns of economic development and the political pacts in Brazil from Vargas (1930) to Lula (2003). 5th revised edition almost doubling the size of the book. English version available. (Book: Editora 34)



Economic growth with foreign savings?

2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries' poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings. Portuguese version available.(Paper presented to International Post Keynesian Workshop).



Crescimento econômico com poupança externa?

2003. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings and open capital accounts. English version available.(Paper Revista de Economia Política)*



O segundo Consenso de Washington e a quase-estagnação da economia brasileira

2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. (Revista de Economia Politica, 23(3) July 2003).*



Financiamento para o subdesenvolvimento: o Brasil e o segundo Consenso de Washington

2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate overevaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. Portuguese version available: O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-Estagnação da Economia Brasileira. (Paper: BNDES 50 Years)*



Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento com estabilidade

2001. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy - particularly of the high interest rates - adopted from 1995. Originally it was written as a document to PSDB. It is one of the founding papers of New Developmentalism. Spanish version available. (Paper/document: Revista de Economia Política, July 2002).*



Una estrategia de desarrollo con estabilidad

2001 With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy since 1995, showing that Central Bank s basic interest rate is absurd and can be reduced. Portuguese version available. (Paper/document: Instituciones y Desarrollo, May 2002).



Endividamento sem Crescimento (Folha, 18.01.02)

2002. Foreign savings financed by direct investment often increase domestic consumption instead of the increase in the rate of investment. (Folha de S.Paulo, 18.1.2002).



Incompatibilidade distributiva e desenvolvimento auto-sustentado

2002. An overview of the Brazilian economy since the 1970s. Income concentrated in the period, but only some additional reduction in wages and salaries as a consequence of a less appreciated exchange rate will permit the country to resume growth. (Paper in book edited by Ricardo Bielschowky e Ricardo Mussi, Políticas para a Retomada do Crescimento - Reflexões de Economistas Brasileiros).



Incompetência e confidence building por trás de 20 anos de quase estagnação da América Latina

2001. My first paper after leaving the Cardoso administration in June 1999. Incompetence and subordination to the North characterized Latin American economic policies since the early 1980s'. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *



A fragilidade que nasce da dependência da poupança externa

2001 Critique of the growth with foreign savings policy. This short article is New Developmentalism's founding article, together with a paper that I wrote with Nakano no ano seguinte, "Economic growth with foreign savings?" (Valor 1000, 2001).



O Novo Rumo do Brasil (Folha, 17.03.99)

1999. Capital is made at home. Growth is a challenge that Brazilians must face using their own savings. (Folha de S.Paulo, 17.3.1999).




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